DOTA Summit 9 Data Analysis

Pro-meta has shifted so much that we really need an analysis for it. In these time before TI 2018, thanks to BTS team, Summit 9 have totally filled the gap and gave us a glance of the heavily shifted meta. Please do remember that since no DPC points were rewarded, there were lots of experimental picks, and teams participating were limited to only 5 out of 18 teams of TI, the data could not represent the full picture.
Same as the previous article, we are going to compare it with the new 7.19 patch released right after the tournament.

Among the 43 games, 86 out of 115 heroes are being picked, 23 heroes are completely untouched-neither picked nor banned. It is obviously due to the limited number of matches.

We witnessed one of the greatest shifts of meta in this 7.18 match, all the top 4 picks were buffed so hard in previous patches resulting that they had a pretty good Win rate and Pick rate.

Starting from 7.10, Necrophos have been continuously receiving buffs and finally back to the meta. The mana regen buff in 7.16 balanced out the great nerf in 7.07. Necrophos can now maintain his mana pool just by last hitting in laneing phase.

7.19 has a good idea on not nerfing his regen (which totally removed him from the pro scene) but makes him vulnerable when using Ghost Shroud, and also removes the too-frequent Reaper’s Scythe after Aghanim’s Scepter. 25 seconds of cooldown can easily remove 2 heroes per team fight in late-game.

Pudge is one of the best support now, the previous buff on Meathook makes it the most OP Level 1 skills in the game, 1300 cast range and 150 pure damage is extremely fearsome. With the Flesh Heap buff at 7.18, every professional player goes 1–4–4 build on Pudge now, which also make him one of the tankiest hero at mid game.
Balance in 7.19 seems to be going a correct direction, which increases the cooldown of Meathook at the early level to encourage different skill builds. But I believe 10 seconds would not make a huge difference, moreover, the +30% experience trait at 10 level may be a bit too much, at the moment Pudge is still a top-tier hero.

For Crystal Maiden, we can take a look at the video from Purge.

Crystal Nova has became a very strong harassing skill in this 2-1-2 meta, increasing the mana cost at early game helps on balancing.

Winter Wyvern was suddenly discovered by the pros after a series of buffs from 7.10 to 7.18. With higher intelligence at 7.17, the low mana cost buff stacked up and made her an early game spammer.

In 7.19, her overbuffed Splinter Blast will have mana cost increased to balance it out.

Enchantress is starting to become a strong offlaner since 7.17, the double buff of Nature’s Attendants on cooldown and manacost provides massive lane phase sustain power. Level 1 Enchantress have 360 mana, level 1 Nature’s Attendants requires 110 mana only but provides 440 heals over 11 seconds. With the buff on attack range and Untouchable in 7.18, Enchantress becomes the top ban, the huge nerf on the mana cost of Nature’s Attendants should help to balance her.

Phantom Lancer is still strong, the nerf in 7.19 is minor but will help to clean out his illusion spam.

Bloodseeker is already in a nerf chain, but his laning power is still too strong. In 7.19, Thirst is heavily nerfed at early levels, which will affect his laning before level 5.

Since the buff on Precision Aura in 7.12, Drow Ranger is occasionally picked up as a niche strategy. But after the buff in 7.16 and the 2-1-2 laning become mainstream, she became a consistent pick, especially in the NA region. Finally she received a minor nerf in 7.19, but I don’t think it matters; she will continue to be contested in this meta.

There is no more insight into the heroes themselves, I would like to point out that the top-contested heroes are too condensed, maybe it is due to the limited team participating, but I believe we still need another small patch to diversify the meta.

Because we have a very limited number of games, we decrease the threshold to a minimum of 3 games.

Enigma received a massive buff in 7.18, as we had predicted in the analysis of TI qualifier, when the line up is correct, Enigma will absolutely overwhelm the game.

Since 7.16, Invoker has become an optimal mid hero. But it has Nothing to do with this case, all 4 Invoker game were played by EG Suma1L, he is obviously in practice mode and all the win are just because his teammates were doing so well, so it is not relevant here.

Finally, Nyx Assassin is totally just a counter pick win, 1 against Techies to totally countering Blast Off! And 2 against Pugna, the delayed Nether Blast is easily countered by Spiked Carapace.

After nerfed to the ground in 7.14, Tiny finally came back after multiple buffs. After the buff in 7.18, Tiny can have good damage with Tree Grab and Toss but does not have too much splash damage that makes him overpowered in the lane phase. He is in a good shape and with the burst ability, we can foresee him being constantly picked.

Dark Willow is indeed the same situation as Tiny, with multiple buffs after a dumpstering nerf in 7.14, she has been tried out in this tournament. The most significant buff is the early-game damage of Bramble Maze, but the nerf on Bedlam is so hard that she seems, needing more buffs to keep up with others.

After a significant buff on Overpower and Fury Swipes in 7.18, Ursa returned to the meta and as always being a dominating laner and snowballer.

Phoenix has the highest win rate on the whole list, the buff chain starts all the way from 7.10, and finally it has entered the pro scene. The increased damage to Fire Spirits in 7.16 helped a lot in laning phase, which is why the nerf in 7.19 focused its late game damage and not touching its early game power. Phoenix will definitely be a viable pick in TI.

Warlock, Beastmaster, Naga Siren, Skywrath Mage and Night Stalker all received huge nerfs in their early game in 7.18, and with buffs on other heroes, they are outclassed and out of meta now. If there is no more buff in the coming patch, I believe that we are not going to see them often in TI.

The low pick rates of Sand King, Clockwerk, Doom and Lycan should be due to teams that like to pick them are not in this tournament, especially for Doom; his ult should be very helpful against casters like Necrophos, Pugna and also any heroes that totally relies on their ultimate like Enigma and Phoenix.

Techies have been picked by VGJ.Storm MSS 3 times in this tournament. They have lost 1 game to EG because of the Nyx Assassin counter pick, that game is irrelevant.

And they have won 1 game against Fnatic in group stage with a tri-lane strategy, but Fnatic was using a Wraith King as support, which may be the problem.

The best example should be the semi-final game 2. VGJ.Storm is definitely winning the game. At mid game, the minefield with push made Fnatic to play passive, causing a large net worth difference, unfortunately they threw the game by diving to tier 4 towers. Techies is totally working as some niche pick now, Blast Off! is the best roaming skills in the game, many teams tried to make it work, and now MSS seems have the idea how to do it. He is like Pangolier, only very few players and teams can play it. Can’t wait to see him tilting people in TI.

After all, thanks for reading, if you find this a good article, please don’t hesitate to give us some applause below.

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